Possible scenario
Fiscal Compromise Contains
35% Chance
French officials respond quickly to the symbolic breach versus Italy by signaling budget concessions and a credible deficit path. Investors treat the reversal as a warning shot rather than the start of a sovereign funding crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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