Possible scenario
Regional Spillover Emerges
20% Chance
The outbreak crosses borders through trade routes or refugee movements, producing a more visible regional health-security event. Neighboring governments likely contain the first imported cases, but sustained chains would carry larger travel and risk-sentiment consequences.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +1.3%
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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