Possible scenario
Russian Link Confirmed
31% Chance
UK and US officials identify a Russian intelligence or proxy connection to the Fairford arrests. The response is diplomatic and security-focused rather than military, but markets price a higher risk of sabotage against NATO infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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