Possible scenario
Political Backlash Builds
22% Chance
The reversal of the UAE denial creates political costs in both Israel and the Arab world. The most likely stress channel is not a break in UAE-Israel relations, but a period of harder public rhetoric and slower bilateral implementation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.