Possible scenario
G20 Skip Confirmed
20% Chance
Putin ultimately avoids the G20, citing scheduling or security reasons while sending a senior Russian representative instead. This would preserve his China diplomacy while minimizing legal and diplomatic exposure tied to the ICC warrant and Western sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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