Possible scenario
APEC Only Diplomacy
45% Chance
Putin attends the China-hosted APEC summit but continues to avoid a firm decision on the U.S.-hosted G20. This is the most likely path because Beijing provides a politically safe venue while G20 attendance would carry higher legal, security and diplomatic costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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