Possible scenario
Governance Settlement Emerges
30% Chance
OpenAI, arXiv, and mathematics institutions reach a pragmatic settlement rather than a permanent rupture. The compromise preserves some openness while adding provenance, opt-out rights, and citation rules for AI-assisted mathematical work.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- CLVT+0.4%
- MSFT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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