Possible scenario
Interim Protection Granted
38% Chance
The Supreme Court or a circuit justice grants temporary protection preventing ICE from re-arresting Mahmoud Khalil while litigation continues. This is plausible because lower courts have already questioned the constitutionality of the detention theory and judges often preserve the status quo in immigration cases with unresolved First Amendment claims.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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