Possible scenario
Oil Risk Premium Jumps
20% Chance
The revised count of seven tanker incidents could make insurers and charterers treat the Red Sea as a materially higher-risk corridor. The direct oil supply impact may still be limited, but the market prices a larger disruption premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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