Possible scenario
Regulatory Stalemate Persists
38% Chance
The Senate defeat leaves Congress without a broad crypto market-structure framework, extending the post-FTX regulatory gap despite the earlier GENIUS Act for stablecoins. Lawmakers remain divided over SEC versus CFTC jurisdiction, consumer protection, and DeFi treatment, making near-term passage unlikely.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-4.3%
- -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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