Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise Emerges
27% Chance
The defeat triggers renewed negotiations rather than ending the process. A scaled-back bill focused on exchange registration, token disclosures, and SEC-CFTC coordination could attract moderates while deferring the most contentious DeFi and preemption issues.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+2.6%
- +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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