Possible scenario
Leadership Derails Measure
38% Chance
Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders use procedural tools to keep Rep. Thomas Massie’s impeachment push from becoming a direct up-or-down removal vote. This is the most likely path because most Republicans remain reluctant to hand Democrats a high-profile break with Trump over Pete Hegseth.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+0.4%
- NOC+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.