Possible scenario
House Impeaches Hegseth
15% Chance
A combination of Democratic votes and a meaningful Republican bloc pushes impeachment through the House. This would be a major institutional rebuke of a sitting defense secretary, but conviction in the Senate would still be unlikely without a much broader GOP break with Trump.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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