Possible scenario
Floor Vote Fails
32% Chance
Massie succeeds in forcing a visible House vote, but the impeachment resolution fails because most Republicans stay with Trump and Hegseth. The vote still matters politically because the number of GOP defections would signal whether the Pentagon controversy is contained or worsening.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Tickers
- GD-0.4%
- NOC+0.3%
- RTX-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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