Possible scenario
Supply Stays Tight
30% Chance
Global oil supply remains tight because OPEC+ discipline, Russian export constraints, and U.S. refinery limitations offset Trump’s domestic drilling rhetoric. Gasoline prices stay politically damaging, but energy producers benefit from firmer crude and refined-product margins.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- COP+0.7%
- XOM+0.7%
- CVX+0.6%
- VLO+0.5%
- FANG+0.5%
- EOG+0.5%
- HAL+0.4%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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