Possible scenario
Prices Ease Naturally
20% Chance
Gasoline prices retreat without a major Washington intervention as seasonal demand fades, refinery runs normalize, or global crude demand weakens. This outcome reduces the political salience of the Biden-versus-Trump price comparison and helps rate-sensitive consumer sectors.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Tickers
- XOM-0.7%
- UAL+0.7%
- CVX-0.7%
- FDX+0.5%
- VLO-0.3%
- LUV+0.3%
- MPC-0.3%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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