Possible scenario
Policy Relief Response
35% Chance
The Trump administration responds to the political optics of gasoline prices exceeding the Biden-era average with targeted supply and cost-relief measures. The most likely moves are a limited Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, refinery waivers, and pressure on states to suspend fuel taxes rather than a sweeping change in energy policy.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- DAL+0.5%
- XOM-0.4%
- CVX-0.4%
- VLO-0.4%
- MPC-0.1%
- WMT+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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