Possible scenario
US India Deal
20% Chance
New Delhi and Washington negotiate a partial accommodation that reduces the commercial risk of Indian crude purchases. This outcome is possible because the tariff threat has already changed behavior, giving the United States leverage while allowing India to avoid an abrupt supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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