Possible scenario
Middle East Pivot
45% Chance
Indian refiners continue replacing Russian cargoes with Iraqi, Saudi and UAE barrels after Russian grades price at a premium to Brent. The shift is operationally feasible because recent purchases and tanker arrangements already point toward Middle Eastern substitution.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- FRO+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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