Possible scenario
Raman Survives Fallout
37% Chance
Nithya Raman remains the slight favorite despite the LAPD slur video because her base of renters, progressives, and younger voters stays largely intact. Karen Bass gains ground, but not enough to fully reverse Raman's earlier double-digit advantage before the controversy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.