Possible scenario
SNS Restores Vucic
43% Chance
Aleksandar Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party uses the snap election to convert his resignation into a parliamentary mandate for the premiership. This is the base case because SNS retains a strong patronage network, media reach, and coalition links with the Socialist Party of Serbia and minority parties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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