Possible scenario
SNS Needs Bargaining
24% Chance
SNS remains the largest party but loses enough ground to require tougher negotiations with SPS, minority lists, or defectors. This outcome is plausible if turnout rises in Belgrade and other urban centers while SNS keeps its rural base.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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