Possible scenario
Opposition Breakthrough
18% Chance
A broad anti-SNS bloc performs strongly enough to challenge Vucic's return to executive power. This requires unusually high urban turnout and coordination among pro-EU, green-left, and conservative opposition groups.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.