Possible scenario
Market Tests Authorities
30% Chance
The intervention effect fades as the U.S.-Japan rate differential remains wide and investors rebuild carry trades. Tokyo's credibility is tested again, especially if officials avoid confirming the exact timing and size of the operation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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