Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Repricing
42% Chance
Investors treat the move in Japanese government bond yields as a continuation of the Bank of Japan normalization path rather than a disorderly break. U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds and gilts cheapen modestly as Japanese investors demand better returns at home, but liquidity remains functional.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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