Possible scenario
BOJ Calms Markets
25% Chance
The Bank of Japan responds to the speed of the yield move with verbal guidance or flexible purchase operations, emphasizing that normalization will not mean tolerating disorderly trading. This does not reverse the longer-run tightening path, but it limits the near-term global spillover.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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