Possible scenario
Protected Buildout Continues
21% Chance
Washington and Gulf governments treat the Iranian threat as credible but manageable. The response centers on air-defense deployments, cyber hardening, insurance reviews, and tighter operating protocols rather than canceling AI infrastructure projects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Energy -0.3%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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