Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Cyber Campaign
22% Chance
Iran avoids overt kinetic attacks but turns to deniable cyber operations against Gulf and Israeli cloud infrastructure. The most likely targets are UAE AI campuses linked to U.S. chip flows, Israeli cloud regions, and telecom backbones supporting data-center connectivity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Telecommunications -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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