Possible scenario
Talarico Breaks Through
31% Chance
James Talarico's fundraising advantage and paid-media saturation blunt Paxton's late ad offensive. Democratic groups treat Texas as a credible pickup opportunity, and Paxton's impeachment history, fraud case, and ethics controversies remain salient with persuadable voters.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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