Possible scenario
Paxton Regains Edge
42% Chance
Ken Paxton's ad buy successfully counters James Talarico's fundraising surge and re-centers the race on Republican turnout, border policy, and Donald Trump's endorsement. Texas's partisan lean and GOP infrastructure give Paxton a durable advantage entering the final month.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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