Possible scenario
Ad Blitz Backfires
17% Chance
The $20 million ad buy draws renewed scrutiny to Paxton's impeachment, acquittal, and dismissed felony fraud charges rather than defining Talarico. Democratic messaging reframes the spending as evidence that Paxton is vulnerable and dependent on national conservative support.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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