Possible scenario
Republicans Escalate Inquiry
25% Chance
Republican senators use Smith's testimony to argue that the Trump prosecutions reflected selective enforcement and improper investigative choices. The panel moves toward referrals, subpoenas, or a broader review of Justice Department conduct under Merrick Garland.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Tickers
- DJT+4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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