Possible scenario
Government Falls
20% Chance
A no-confidence motion succeeds after opposition parties align against the budget bypass. This would echo the 2024 Barnier collapse and produce a sharper risk-off move because markets would doubt France's ability to pass a credible deficit plan.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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