Possible scenario
Bypass Fuels Standoff
25% Chance
The government advances the budget through a parliamentary bypass, but the procedure deepens political conflict and leaves investors unsure whether the savings will survive. This outcome calms the immediate approval risk only partially and keeps French spreads vulnerable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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