Possible scenario
Contained Missile Signaling
45% Chance
North Korea continues a familiar cycle of ballistic missile tests, state-media claims and allied condemnation without crossing into direct military confrontation. Kim Jong Un uses the launches to reinforce nuclear-status claims and pressure Seoul, Tokyo and Washington while avoiding a response that could threaten regime stability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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