Possible scenario
Allied Deterrence Response
25% Chance
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo respond with visible deterrence measures, including air or naval exercises, intelligence sharing and renewed sanctions proposals. The response is firm but calibrated, designed to raise costs for Pyongyang without creating an immediate crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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