Possible scenario
Low-Intensity Resistance
25% Chance
Hezbollah avoids holding territory but restarts selective guerrilla pressure against Israeli positions in southern Lebanon. The group tries to impose costs without triggering the kind of open war that followed earlier escalation cycles.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.