Possible scenario
Limited Military Exchange
30% Chance
A further attack on shipping or a U.S. vessel triggers limited U.S. and possibly Israeli strikes on IRGC naval, missile, drone, or radar assets. Both sides attempt to keep the exchange below the threshold of full regional war, but markets price a sharper escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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