Possible scenario
Armed Containment Holds
38% Chance
Washington uses the three-carrier deployment and amphibious groups to deter further IRGC attacks while avoiding immediate strikes on Iranian territory. The most likely near-term path is a tense but managed naval standoff, with coalition escorts, warning shots, cyber activity, and back-channel messaging through Oman and Qatar.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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