Possible scenario
Fiscal Drift Continues
30% Chance
France avoids an acute political rupture but fails to produce enough consolidation to change the debt path. Investors price a higher probability of further downgrades, though the move remains contained because the deterioration has been gradual and widely telegraphed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Utilities -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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