Possible scenario
Protection Wall Deepens
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump administration treats GM's warning as further evidence that Chinese EV makers could overwhelm North American producers if indirect routes remain open. Washington tightens tariff, origin, software, and customs enforcement rules while still pressing U.S. automakers to improve cost competitiveness.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- GMM.USD+2.0%
- F+1.6%
- TSLA+0.8%
- STLA+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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