Possible scenario
Final Rule Holds
45% Chance
The CFTC is most likely to preserve the dropped offchain-copy requirement as it finalizes crypto recordkeeping rules. The agency can argue that regulated firms still need retrieval, auditability and supervisory access, but do not need duplicative traditional databases for every blockchain-native record.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
Tickers
- COIN+2.8%
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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