Possible scenario
Targeting support expands
18% Chance
A renewed Russian strike campaign pushes Washington to loosen restrictions rather than tighten them. The administration preserves deniability but allows more actionable intelligence for Ukrainian strikes against launchers, depots, and command nodes linked to attacks on civilians.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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