Possible scenario
Partial cutoff emerges
25% Chance
Rubio's denial proves technically true, but U.S. officials narrow the scope of intelligence that can be used for strikes inside Russia. This would validate Kyiv's complaint that restrictions are having battlefield consequences while avoiding a complete intelligence break.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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