Possible scenario
Denial broadly holds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Rubio's denial reflects the operational reality: intelligence sharing continues, but with tighter legal and targeting review. Kyiv continues to complain about delays and exclusions, yet the dispute remains managed inside U.S.-Ukraine channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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