Possible scenario
Trump Contains Revolt
30% Chance
The White House argues that limiting military action would embolden Tehran and threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Most Republicans stay with Trump, leaving Hinson and a handful of vulnerable members isolated.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- CVX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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