Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation Returns
18% Chance
An incident in or near the Strait of Hormuz overwhelms the congressional debate and shifts attention back to military risk. Even lawmakers who oppose the war face pressure to support retaliation or emergency maritime protection.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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