Possible scenario
Sustained Military Escalation
30% Chance
Iran or its aligned militias carry out a sustained campaign that causes U.S. casualties, forcing Washington into broader retaliation. The conflict remains geographically centered on Iraq, Syria, and Gulf bases, but the probability of direct U.S.-Iran exchanges rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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