Possible scenario
Diplomatic Deconfliction
18% Chance
Regional governments move quickly to prevent a wider war, using Oman, Qatar, and Iraq as intermediaries. Iran tones down direct threats in exchange for limits on U.S. operations near its borders and assurances on Gulf airspace.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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