Possible scenario
Contained Base Harassment
40% Chance
Iran and aligned militias conduct repeated drone and rocket attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf, but most are intercepted and casualties remain limited. Washington reinforces air defenses and answers selectively, avoiding direct strikes deep inside Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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